[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 21 09:51:53 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN    ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             104/53             105/54

COMMENT: A C2.9 flare was observed at 2259UT otherwise solar 
activity was at Very Low levels during 20 August. Further C-class 
flare activity is possible over the next few days with the small 
chance of isolated M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds 
remained below 440 km/s over the past 24 hours. Analysis of STEREO 
satellite data suggests that solar wind speeds are expected to 
increase again during 21 August to approximately 500-600 km/s 
due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind 
speeds are then expected to decline slowly from these values 
during 22-23 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111122
      Darwin               5   22211122
      Townsville           5   12212122
      Learmonth            4   12120122
      Sydney               5   22111113
      Canberra             1   02000011
      Gnangara             4   12011122
      Casey(Ant)           7   23311022    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    12    Mostly Quiet with the chance of Unsettled levels 
                and isolated Active periods later in the UT day.
22 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet 
levels for 21 August with the chance of an small increase in 
activity later in the UT day due to an anticipated coronal hole 
solar wind stream. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected 
for 22-23 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at low latitudes at times 
during the past 24 hours. Slight depressions are expected at 
times over the next 24 hours for low-equatorial latitudes otherwise 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Some periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed 
during the past 24 hours which may have degraded HF conditions 
at times. Further isolated periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E 
are expected over the next 24 hours which may result in degraded 
HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    50    Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed over northern Australian 
regions at times during the past 24 hours. Slight depressions 
are expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern 
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some periods of Spread-F 
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours 
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further isolated 
periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 
24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    48900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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