[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 20 09:49:47 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: No C-class flare activity was observed during the past 
24 hours. C-class flare activity is still possible over the next 
few days with the small chance of isolated M-class flare activity 
from region 1271 and returning regions. Solar wind speeds remained 
below 400 km/s over the past 24 hours and are expected to remain 
around these levels for 20 August. Analysis of STEREO satellite 
data suggests that solar wind speeds are expected to increase 
again during 21 August to approximately 500-600 km/s due to an 
anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Darwin               2   21100002
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Sydney               1   01100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Gnangara             2   11110101
      Casey(Ant)           3   22200101    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1000 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug     5    Quiet
21 Aug    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                Active periods.
22 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet 
levels for 20 August with a slight increase in activity during 
21 August due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. 
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected for 22 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at low-equatorial latitudes 
at times during the past 24 hours. Slight depressions are expected 
at times over the next 24 hours for low-equatorial latitudes 
otherwise MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed 
during the past 24 hours which may have degraded HF conditions 
at times. Further periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected 
over the next 24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions 
at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    50    Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at equatorial regions 
at times during the past 24 hours with slight depressions observed 
at times over northern Australian regions. Slight depressions 
are expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern 
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of Spread-F 
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours 
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further periods 
of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours 
which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    69000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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