[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 19 09:53:02 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:GREEN  ION: *YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    98/45             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from solar regions 
1271 and 1272 during the past 24 hours with further C-class flares 
possible from these regions during 19 August. Isolated M-class 
flare activity is possible for 19 August. Solar wind speeds declined 
slowly over the past 24 hours and are presently below 400 km/s. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly 
over the next two days. Analysis of STEREO satellite data suggests 
that solar wind speeds are expected to increase again during 
21 August to approximately 500-600 km/s due to an anticipated 
coronal hole solar wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101211
      Darwin               4   12101212
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            2   11001210
      Sydney               2   11101201
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Gnangara             3   11011211
      Casey(Ant)           6   23210221    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3121 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug     5    Quiet
20 Aug     5    Quiet
21 Aug    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible Active periods 
                at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet 
levels over the next two days with a slight increase in activity 
during 21 August due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind 
stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Fair-poor      Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Fair-poor      Normal         Normal
20 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low-equatorial 
latitudes at times during the past 24 hours. Moderate depressions 
are expected at times over the next 24 hours for low-equatorial 
latitudes otherwise MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions 
were observed during the past 24 hours which may have degraded 
HF conditions at times. Further periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E 
are expected over the next 24 hours which may result in degraded 
HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Aug    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug    45    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions 
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed 
at times over northern Australian regions. Mild depressions are 
expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern 
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of Spread-F 
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours 
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further periods 
of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours 
which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    68500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list