[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 19 09:53:02 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from solar regions
1271 and 1272 during the past 24 hours with further C-class flares
possible from these regions during 19 August. Isolated M-class
flare activity is possible for 19 August. Solar wind speeds declined
slowly over the past 24 hours and are presently below 400 km/s.
Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly
over the next two days. Analysis of STEREO satellite data suggests
that solar wind speeds are expected to increase again during
21 August to approximately 500-600 km/s due to an anticipated
coronal hole solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11101211
Darwin 4 12101212
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 2 11001210
Sydney 2 11101201
Canberra 0 00000100
Gnangara 3 11011211
Casey(Ant) 6 23210221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3121 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 5 Quiet
20 Aug 5 Quiet
21 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible Active periods
at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet
levels over the next two days with a slight increase in activity
during 21 August due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Fair-poor Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Fair-poor Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low-equatorial
latitudes at times during the past 24 hours. Moderate depressions
are expected at times over the next 24 hours for low-equatorial
latitudes otherwise MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values. Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions
were observed during the past 24 hours which may have degraded
HF conditions at times. Further periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E
are expected over the next 24 hours which may result in degraded
HF conditions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 45 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed
at times over northern Australian regions. Mild depressions are
expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of Spread-F
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further periods
of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours
which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 68500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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