[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 18 09:53:13 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    98/45             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from solar regions 
1271 and 1272 during the past 24 hours with further C-class flares 
possible from these regions during 18 August. Isolated M-class 
flare activity is possible from region 1271. Solar wind speeds 
remained below 450 km/s during the past 24 hours and are expected 
to slowly decline over the next couple of days. Analysis of SOHO 
and STEREO satellite imagery suggests that CME activity observed 
early on 17 August is primarily directed towards the east and 
out of the ecliptic plane and is therefore not expected to be 
geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22212011
      Darwin               6   32212112
      Townsville           0   00000000
      Learmonth            4   22222010
      Sydney               5   22222101
      Canberra             2   21112000
      Casey(Ant)           7   33222012    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug : 
      Darwin              20   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2222 3122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug     6    Quiet
19 Aug     5    Quiet
20 Aug     5    Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet 
levels over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes 
at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are expected 
at times over the next 24 hours primarily for low latitudes otherwise 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during 
the past 24 hours which may have degraded HF conditions at times. 
Further periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over 
the next 24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions 
at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 25% at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values to
		depressed 5 to 15% at times.
19 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions 
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed 
at times over northern Australian regions. Mild depressions are 
expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern 
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of Spread-F 
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours 
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further periods 
of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours 
which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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