[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 18 09:53:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: C-class flare activity was observed from solar regions
1271 and 1272 during the past 24 hours with further C-class flares
possible from these regions during 18 August. Isolated M-class
flare activity is possible from region 1271. Solar wind speeds
remained below 450 km/s during the past 24 hours and are expected
to slowly decline over the next couple of days. Analysis of SOHO
and STEREO satellite imagery suggests that CME activity observed
early on 17 August is primarily directed towards the east and
out of the ecliptic plane and is therefore not expected to be
geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22212011
Darwin 6 32212112
Townsville 0 00000000
Learmonth 4 22222010
Sydney 5 22222101
Canberra 2 21112000
Casey(Ant) 7 33222012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2222 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 6 Quiet
19 Aug 5 Quiet
20 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Quiet
levels over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes
at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are expected
at times over the next 24 hours primarily for low latitudes otherwise
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
Periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during
the past 24 hours which may have degraded HF conditions at times.
Further periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over
the next 24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions
at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 25% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values to
depressed 5 to 15% at times.
19 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed
at times over northern Australian regions. Mild depressions are
expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for northern
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of Spread-F
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further periods
of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours
which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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