[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 17 09:52:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN   ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: C-class flare activity is possible from solar regions 
1271 and 1272 which have recently rotated into view. Solar wind 
speeds increased from approximately 450 to 650 km/s and then 
again decreased to under 450 km/s over the period approximately 
03-12 UT on 16 August. Solar wind parameters and imagery suggests 
the observed increase in solar wind speeds were possibly due 
to the tail end of an elongated coronal hole. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to decline slowly over the next couple of days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   13232111
      Darwin               8   23232112
      Learmonth            9   23333021
      Sydney               9   13333111
      Canberra             5   02332000
      Casey(Ant)          12   24333221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   4312 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Aug     6    Quiet 
19 Aug     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Quiet to Unsettled 
during the past 24 hours with an isolated storm period at high 
latitudes due to the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled to Quiet 
over the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Poor-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Poor-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
18 Aug      Poor-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes 
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed 
at times at mid-high latitudes. Mild depressions are expected 
at times over the next couple of days otherwise MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 30% at
      times.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
18 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions 
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed 
at times over the Australian region. Mild depressions are expected 
at times over the next 24 hours otherwise MUFs are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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