[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 16 09:49:30 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN   ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: C-class flare activity is possible from regions on the 
east limb rotating onto the visible disk. Solar wind speeds continued 
to decline over the past 24 hours and are presently below 450 
km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly 
over the next couple of days. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32222232
      Darwin               8   22222232
      Townsville          12   3-32233-
      Learmonth            9   31222332
      Sydney               8   32222222
      Canberra             4   21111221
      Casey(Ant)          10   33322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2222 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
18 Aug     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Quiet to Unsettled 
during the past 24 hours with some isolated storm periods at 
high latitudes due to the influence of a coronal hole solar wind 
stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled 
to Quiet over the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Poor-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
17 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes 
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed 
at times at mid-high latitudes. Mild depressions are expected at times 
over the next couple of days otherwise MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Aug    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 20%.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
17 Aug    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
18 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions 
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed 
at times over the Australian region. Mild depressions are expected 
at times over the next couple of days otherwise MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    77800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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