[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 15 09:40:59 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
As previously anticipated, the effect of the recurrent
coronal hole seems to have strengthened the solar wind
stream. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 350 km/s
to 510 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field varied mostly between
+/-5nT during the day. Solar activity is expected to stay
at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 32221322
Darwin 8 32221322
Townsville 8 32221322
Learmonth 7 22221322
Canberra 4 21111212
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1210 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled, active periods possible.
16 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled, active periods possible.
17 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
were observed today. Conditinos may remain enhanced upto
Unsettled and at times upto Active levels for the next 2
days due to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
may be expected for the third day as the coronal hole effect
weakens around that time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
17 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days due
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic levels during this time.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be expected on
the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 30 about 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Aug 30 about 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Aug 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Regional MUFs showed minor to moderate depressions
across the region. Nearly simiar conditions may be expected
for the next 2 days due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days. Minor to mild degradations may
be possible on the third day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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