[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 15 09:40:59 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
As previously anticipated, the effect of the recurrent 
coronal hole seems to have strengthened the solar wind 
stream. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 350 km/s 
to 510 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field varied mostly between 
+/-5nT during the day. Solar activity is expected to stay 
at Very Low levels for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32221322
      Darwin               8   32221322
      Townsville           8   32221322
      Learmonth            7   22221322
      Canberra             4   21111212
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1210 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    12    Quiet to unsettled, active periods possible. 
16 Aug    12    Quiet to unsettled, active periods possible. 
17 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: As anticipated mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
were observed today. Conditinos may remain enhanced upto 
Unsettled and at times upto Active levels for the next 2 
days due to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
may be expected for the third day as the coronal hole effect 
weakens around that time. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
16 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days due 
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic levels during this time. 
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be expected on 
the third day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    30    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    30    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
17 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Regional MUFs showed minor to moderate depressions 
across the region. Nearly simiar conditions may be expected 
for the next 2 days due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic 
activity levels on these days. Minor to mild degradations may 
be possible on the third day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    31700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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