[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 14 09:49:19 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed first decreased from 380 km/s to 310 km/s 
by 1800UT and then gradually increased to 350 km/s by around 
2300UT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
remained mostly between +/-4nT during the day. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next 3 days. The 
previously predicted strengthening of the solar wind stream from 
a recurrent coronal hole may have started with the gradual increase 
in the solar wind speed towards the end of 13 August as mentioned 
above. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12101012
      Darwin               3   12101012
      Townsville           3   12101012
      Learmonth            2   11101011
      Canberra             0   01000001
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1212 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     8    Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible. 
15 Aug    10    Unsettled to active 
16 Aug    10    Unsettled to active 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today. 
Conditinos may be expected to turn from Quiet to Unsettled levels 
on 14 August as a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent 
coronal hole starts showing its effect. Geomagnetic conditions 
may stay enhanced to Unsettled to Active levels due to the effect 
of this corohal hole on 15 and 16 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
15 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
16 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Minor 
to mild degradations on 14 August and Minor to Moderate 
degrdations on 15 and 16 August may be observed due to 
expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 
these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Aug    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 30% over the UT
day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug    32    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
15 Aug    30    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    30    about 20% below predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Regional MUFs showed minor to mild depressions across 
the region. Minor to mild degradations on 14 August and Minor 
to Moderate degradations on 15 and 16 August are possible due 
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    55100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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