[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 13 09:50:12 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed varied between 380 and 410 km/s for 
most parts of the UT day today and the Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly between +/-4nT 
during the day. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low 
levels for the next 3 days. The effect of a recurrent coronal 
hole may strengthen the solar wind stream from 14 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11221111
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           4   11221111
      Learmonth            2   11120011
      Canberra             1   00210000
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1111 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug     5    Quiet 
14 Aug     7    Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible. 
15 Aug    10    Unsettled to active 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
today. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected 
on 13 August with the possibility of some enhancements late 
on 14 August to Unsettled levels due to an expected effect 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal 
hole. The coronal hole effect may keep the activity levels 
enhanced to Unsettled to Active levels on 15 August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected on 13 August with the 
possibility of minor to mild degradations on 14 August and 
Minor to Moderate degrdations on 15 August due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug    41

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 
      20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    38    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
15 Aug    32    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                25% 

COMMENT: Regional MUFs showed minor to mild depressions across 
the region. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal 
levels on 13 August. Minor to mild degradations on 14 August 
and Minor to Moderate degradations on 15 August are possible 
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels 
from late on 14 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    44300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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