[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 12 09:44:41 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. 
Two C-class flares were observed today, the largest being 
a C6.2 flare from region 1263 (now behind the western limb). 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 480 to 410 
km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained mostly between +/-3nT during the day. 
As anticipated a moderate shock was detected in the solar wind
by Stereo-A around 0537UT. This seems to be due to the arrival 
of the CME that was observed on 09 August. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at Very Low to Low levels during the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12210012
      Darwin               6   1222----
      Townsville           3   22110012
      Learmonth            3   11220012
      Canberra             1   02100001
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2232 1021     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     5    Quiet 
13 Aug     5    Quiet 
14 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
today. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Aug    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to mild depressions 
across the region. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly 
at normal levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 547 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   121000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list