[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 12 09:44:41 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours.
Two C-class flares were observed today, the largest being
a C6.2 flare from region 1263 (now behind the western limb).
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 480 to 410
km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remained mostly between +/-3nT during the day.
As anticipated a moderate shock was detected in the solar wind
by Stereo-A around 0537UT. This seems to be due to the arrival
of the CME that was observed on 09 August. Solar activity is
expected to stay at Very Low to Low levels during the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12210012
Darwin 6 1222----
Townsville 3 22110012
Learmonth 3 11220012
Canberra 1 02100001
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2232 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 5 Quiet
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
today. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to mild depressions
across the region. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly
at normal levels for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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