[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 11 09:49:52 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug:  90/34

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. 
Four C-class flares were observed today, the largest being 
a C6.1 flare from region 1263(N17W93). A Type II radio busrt 
was observed at 1607UT. This Type II event may be associated 
to a material emission from north-east limb around the same 
time. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 550 to 
470 km/s over the UT day with the effects of the south-west 
coronal hole abating. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field remained mostly between +/-3nT during the day. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at Low levels with some 
possibility of going up to Moderate levels during the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Mostly quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12222111
      Darwin               5   12222112
      Townsville           4   -2221111
      Learmonth            4   12222010
      Canberra             4   11321010
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          17   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3332 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug    10    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods 
                possible. 
12 Aug     6    Quiet 
13 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 10 August 
and is current for interval 10-11 August. Mostly quiet 
geomagnetic conditions were observed today. Mostly quiet to 
unsettled conditions with some possibility of active periods 
may be expected on 11 August due to possible effects from 
previously observed CME. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected 
for the following two days thereafter. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0910UT 09/08, Ended at 1835UT 09/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions possible on 11August due to expected enhancements 
in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. Mostly normal HF 
conditions may be expected on 12 and 13 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 
9 August and is current for interval 10-11 August. Regional 
MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions across the region. 
Brief disturbances possible, especially on mid and high 
latitude locations on 11 August due to an expected rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on this day. HF conditions are 
expected to stay mostly at normal levels on 12 and 13 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 589 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   197000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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