[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 10 09:47:35 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    0355UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X7.0    0805UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. AR 1263 
(N18W78) produced several short duration flares, the largest 
being an an M2.5 event at 0354UT and an X6.9 event at 0805UT. 
The latter had associated Type II and IV radio bursts. Following 
each of these two flares, a west directed CME was observed in 
LASCO and STEREO imagery. Initial propagation speed estimates 
are ~1500km/s and ~1600km/s, respectively. Electron fluxes were 
elevated immediately following the flares and high energy proton 
flux was elevated following the later, larger flare. A glancing 
blow from these CMEs is possible, especially the later one. Further 
activity is likely from AR 1263 before it rotates off the disc 
later today. The solar wind speed decreased from 650 to 550 km/s 
over the UT day with the effects of the south-west coronal hole 
abating. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
remained mostly neutral.


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1260 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 19 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23320011
      Darwin               7   23321112
      Townsville           6   23320012
      Learmonth            7   23420011
      Canberra             3   22220000
      Hobart               -   --------    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Darwin              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           114   (Major storm)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3323 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
11 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind speed is decreasing as the effects of the 
south-west coronal hole abate. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mostly neutral during the UT day. The regional 
geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with Unsettled with an Active 
period from 05-08UT. Unsettled to Active conditions are possible 
on 10Aug due to glancing blows from CMEs observed on 09Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 0910UT 09/08, Ended at 1835UT 09/08

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
possible on 10-11Aug due to enhancements in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
11 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
12 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions 
across the region. Brief disturbances possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions late 10Aug or early 11Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   204000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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