[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 9 09:48:39 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.5    1810UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: AR 1263 (N18W68) produced a short-duration M3 class 
flare at 1810UT with associated Type II radio sweep. Following 
this a fast W-directed CME with limited angular spread was observed 
in LASCO C3 imagery. Initial propagation speed estimates are 
1000-2000 km/s. Energetic electron fluxes were elevated immediately 
following the flare. An impulsive C6 level X-ray flare was observed 
at 2230. Culgoora H-alpha imagery suggests AR 1263 as the source. 
A C4 level flare was observed at 2240UT. Region 1263 maintains 
potential for M class flare activity. Region 1266 (N19W12) grew 
overnight. Solar wind speed increased from 500 to 600 km/s over 
the UT day as the coronal hole wind stream persists. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly neutral 
with a period of sustained mild Southward bias during the mid-part 
of the UT day.


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1260 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 19 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 08 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12234111
      Darwin               8   22224111
      Townsville           8   12224112
      Learmonth           11   22235101
      Canberra             4   01033100
      Hobart               -   --------    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug     5    Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence 
of a coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mostly neutral with a sustained period of 
Southward bias during the mid-part of the UT day. The regional 
geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with Unsettled to Active intervals 
from 09-15UT. Expect mostly Quiet conditions with isolated Unsettled 
periods next three days as the coronal hole wind stream declines. 
Chance of brief disturbance late day one to early day two if 
the fast CME observed after 18UT on Aug 08 impacts the Earth.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
possible days one and two due to enhancements in geomagnetic 
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%
10 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%
11 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions 
across the region. Sporadic-E observed Norfolk Is. 02-04UT. Continuing 
poor ionospheric support Antarctic region. Antarctic conditions 
should improve as energetic ion levels decline over the next 
few days. Variable MUF's possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Brief 
disturbances possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions late day one 
to early day two.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 534 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    44400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list