[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 8 09:52:11 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Low levels with isolated 
minor C-class flares. AR 1263 (N16W54) showed some growth and 
merging and maintains potential for C to M class activity. Solar 
wind speeds remained elevated under the influence of a coronal 
hole wind stream, but declined gradually over the UT day from 
600 to 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly 
neutral, but maintained a slightly southward bias of -2nT from 
15-22UT before returning to neutral at the time of report issue. 
Energetic ions declined steadily from the elevated levels of 
the previous few days.


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1260 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 19 Aug.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   32101121
      Darwin               4   22101122
      Townsville           5   32101121
      Learmonth            5   31100222
      Canberra             2   21100110
      Hobart               -   --------    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             31   6544 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug     7    Quiet
10 Aug     5    Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet at low 
to mid latitudes. Unsettled to Active periods observed early 
and late in the UT day at high latitudes. Solar wind speed remains 
elevated under the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind 
stream, which is expected to continue day one, gradually declining 
days two and three. IMF Bz has remained mostly neutral, limiting 
geomagnetic effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 0635UT 04/08, Ended at 0555UT 06/08

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions possible day one due to expected enhancements in 
geomagnetic activity levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day with 
      enhancements to 50% 11-13UT,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Absorption observed Hobart around local dawn.
      Perth enhanced to 50% local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%
09 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%
10 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%
COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions 
across the region. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic 
region. Antarctic conditions should improve as energetic ion 
levels decline over the next few days. Variable MUF's possible 
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Brief disturbances possible S Aus/NZ 
regions day one.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 548 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   278000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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