[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 8 09:52:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Low levels with isolated
minor C-class flares. AR 1263 (N16W54) showed some growth and
merging and maintains potential for C to M class activity. Solar
wind speeds remained elevated under the influence of a coronal
hole wind stream, but declined gradually over the UT day from
600 to 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly
neutral, but maintained a slightly southward bias of -2nT from
15-22UT before returning to neutral at the time of report issue.
Energetic ions declined steadily from the elevated levels of
the previous few days.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1260 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 19 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 32101121
Darwin 4 22101122
Townsville 5 32101121
Learmonth 5 31100222
Canberra 2 21100110
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 31 6544 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet at low
to mid latitudes. Unsettled to Active periods observed early
and late in the UT day at high latitudes. Solar wind speed remains
elevated under the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind
stream, which is expected to continue day one, gradually declining
days two and three. IMF Bz has remained mostly neutral, limiting
geomagnetic effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 0635UT 04/08, Ended at 0555UT 06/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions possible day one due to expected enhancements in
geomagnetic activity levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day with
enhancements to 50% 11-13UT,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Absorption observed Hobart around local dawn.
Perth enhanced to 50% local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
09 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
10 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
COMMENT: Regional MUF's showed minor to moderate depressions
across the region. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic
region. Antarctic conditions should improve as energetic ion
levels decline over the next few days. Variable MUF's possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Brief disturbances possible S Aus/NZ
regions day one.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 548 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 278000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list