[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 11

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 7 09:55:18 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Only one significant flare was observed over the past 
UT day, a C4 level event from AR 1267 (S17E13). A slow W directed 
CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 12 UT. This was possibly 
associated with a filament eruption. AR 1261 is now approaching 
the W limb. AR 1263 (N16W43) developed further spots in its trailing 
group. Along with AR1267 (S17E14), it maintains potential for 
C to M class activity. The proton event which began at 04/0630 
reached peak flux values during 06 Aug and ended at 06/0515. 
Solar wind speed increased to 600 km/s early in the UT day following 
CME passages on Aug 05. Speeds declined slowly until about 15UT 
then showed rapid fluctuations from 400-600 km/s. After 21 UT 
Vsw increased again to near 600km/s at the time of report issue. 
The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly neutral or slightly 
northwards after 08 UT, limiting geomagnetic effects of the CME 
passage. A small S hemisphere coronal hole is approaching geoeffective

position. Solar wind speeds may remain elevated throughout 07 
Aug. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
06/1015UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   43333312
      Darwin              14   43333312
      Townsville          15   43334312
      Learmonth           15   43343311
      Canberra            10   33333201
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Darwin              46   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            90   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             33                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             49   3200 1287     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug    12    Unsettled 
08 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 6 August and 
is current for interval 6-7 August. Solar wind velocities remained 
elevated throughout 06 Aug following the CME passages of 05 Aug. 
Vsw fluctuated from 400-600 km/s from 15-22UT, then remained 
relatively stable at 580 km/s until the time of report issue. 
The IMF Bz remained neutral or slightly northwards after 08 UT 
limiting geomagnetic effects of the CME passage. The regional 
geomagnetic field was Unsettled to Active at low to mid latitudes, 
with Minor to Major Storm periods observed at high latitudes. 
A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is now moving into geoeffective 
position. Solar wind velocities could remain elevated throughout 
07 Aug. Expect Unsettled conditions with the chance of Active 
periods day one, declining gradually over the following two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor
PCA Event : Began at 0635UT 04/08, Ended at 0555UT 06/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be expected during the next 2 days due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn with periods of sporadic-E.
   Niue Island Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable enhancements/depressions during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
08 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
09 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed with MUF
enhancements/depressions 
to 40% over short time-frames Equatorial/N Aus regions, mainly 
local day. Proton event causing disturbance in Antarctic region 
ended 06/0515. Expect poor ionospheric support Antarctic region 
days one and two due to continuing geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    83600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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