[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 2 09:50:02 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with a number of minor C-class
flares being observed. The largest was a C4 level event from
active region 1261 (N18W08) at 01/0730UT. This region has grown
slightly in area and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure.
It has potential for further significant flare activity. Solar
wind speed declined steadily from 700 to 550 km/s over the UT
day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT and was
predominantly slightly positive over the second half of the UT day.
A solar sector boundary crossing occurred at 01/1300UT. Possible
brief disturbance in the solar wind on 2 August due to weak CME
effect from 29 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22211113
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 12 22213334
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 2 12100002
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 96 (Minor storm)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3221 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 5 Quiet
04 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
at low to mid latitudes. Isolated Unsettled to Active intervals
observed at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one
as the present coronal hole wind stream continues to decline.
Conditions should be generally quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night. Spread-F
13-15UT.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night. Spread-F observed
Townsville 12-20UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Hobart evening spread-F
and periods of sporadic-E conditions 13-19UT. Perth
spread-F 15-21UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 40% over the UT day.
Casey no data available.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%
03 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
04 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal conditions Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions.
Periods of disturbance possible Antarctic region day one. Active
sunspot regions have potential for significant flare/SWF events
next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 632 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 400000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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