[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 2 09:50:02 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with a number of minor C-class 
flares being observed. The largest was a C4 level event from 
active region 1261 (N18W08) at 01/0730UT. This region has grown 
slightly in area and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. 
It has potential for further significant flare activity. Solar 
wind speed declined steadily from 700 to 550 km/s over the UT 
day. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT and was
predominantly slightly positive over the second half of the UT day. 
A solar sector boundary crossing occurred at 01/1300UT. Possible 
brief disturbance in the solar wind on 2 August due to weak CME 
effect from 29 July. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22211113
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville          12   22213334
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             2   12100002
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          96   (Minor storm)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3221 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Aug     5    Quiet 
04 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 
at low to mid latitudes. Isolated Unsettled to Active intervals 
observed at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one 
as the present coronal hole wind stream continues to decline. 
Conditions should be generally quiet days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night. Spread-F
      13-15UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night. Spread-F observed
      Townsville 12-20UT. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Hobart evening spread-F
      and periods of sporadic-E conditions 13-19UT. Perth
      spread-F 15-21UT. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 40% over the UT day.
      Casey no data available.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 30% 
03 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
04 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal conditions Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions. 
Periods of disturbance possible Antarctic region day one. Active 
sunspot regions have potential for significant flare/SWF events 
next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 632 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   400000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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