[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:52:13 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0622UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate. Active region 1261 (N14W21)
produced a long-duration M1.4 level flare at 0620UT. There were
associated Type IV and Type II radio sweeps with estimated shock
speeds of 1000-1200km/s. LASCO C3 imagery showed an associated
front-side full-halo CME with estimated propagation velocities
of 800-900 km/s. Following this event the >10MeV proton flux
was elevated more than one order of magnitude. A geoeffective
shock from this CME is possible on Aug 04 to 05. A number of
minor C-class flares were produced by AR 1261 and AR 1263 (N17E08).
Both of these regions maintain potential for further significant
flare production. Solar wind parameters continue to decline.
The IMF Bz fluctuated +/-2nT over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11210111
Darwin 4 22210111
Townsville 3 21210111
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3331 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 5 Quiet
04 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated
Unsettled intervals observed at high latitudes. Expect similar
conditions day one as the present coronal hole wind stream continues
to decline. IPS Geostat Warning 118 is current with Active to
Minor Storm periods possible Aug 04-05 due to a shock arrival
from the flare-induced CME observed at 02/0600.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%
COMMENT: Brief SWF's up to 3MHz observed Cocos Is., Learmonth
and Darwin 06-07UT in association with an M1 solar flare. Expect
mostly normal ionospheric conditions days one and two. Disturbances
possible mainly S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions day three due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity resultant from the M-class solar flare observed
Aug 02.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 603 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 267000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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