[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:52:13 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0622UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate. Active region 1261 (N14W21) 
produced a long-duration M1.4 level flare at 0620UT. There were 
associated Type IV and Type II radio sweeps with estimated shock 
speeds of 1000-1200km/s. LASCO C3 imagery showed an associated 
front-side full-halo CME with estimated propagation velocities 
of 800-900 km/s. Following this event the >10MeV proton flux 
was elevated more than one order of magnitude. A geoeffective 
shock from this CME is possible on Aug 04 to 05. A number of 
minor C-class flares were produced by AR 1261 and AR 1263 (N17E08). 
Both of these regions maintain potential for further significant 
flare production. Solar wind parameters continue to decline. 
The IMF Bz fluctuated +/-2nT over the UT day.




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11210111
      Darwin               4   22210111
      Townsville           3   21210111
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               -   --------    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   3331 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     5    Quiet
04 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug    20    Active
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled intervals observed at high latitudes. Expect similar 
conditions day one as the present coronal hole wind stream continues 
to decline. IPS Geostat Warning 118 is current with Active to 
Minor Storm periods possible Aug 04-05 due to a shock arrival 
from the flare-induced CME observed at 02/0600.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 30%
COMMENT: Brief SWF's up to 3MHz observed Cocos Is., Learmonth 
and Darwin 06-07UT in association with an M1 solar flare. Expect 
mostly normal ionospheric conditions days one and two. Disturbances 
possible mainly S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions day three due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity resultant from the M-class solar flare observed 
Aug 02.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   267000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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