[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 1 09:29:06 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 119/71

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Six C-class events with the largest a C3.8 at 0254 UT 
from region 1261 (N17E08). This region grew in complexity while 
regions 1263 (N19E35), 1260 (N19W22) and 1265 (N16W55) appear 
stable. The IMF north-south component ranged between +8 to -5 
nT while the wind speed increased from 550 to 700 km/s. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to begin settling later on 1
August. Possible brief disturbance in the solar wind on 2
August due to weak CME effect from 29 July. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active period.

Estimated Indices 31 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32321212
      Darwin               8   32321212
      Townsville           6   22321112
      Learmonth           10   34332222
      Canberra             3   21111101
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            91   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   1112 3454     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug    12    Quiet to unsettled with active periods possible 
02 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Aug     6    Mostly quiet 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 30 July and 
is current for interval 31 July to 1 August. Isolated minor storm 
periods possible on 1 and 2 August at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Jul    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      30% 01, 17 and 21-22 UT and to 45% 12-16 and 23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      01-03 and 12-18 UT at Darwin. Night spread F observed
      at Darwin and Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 35%
      09-20 UT at most stations. Depressions to 20% 12-16 UT
      at Learmonth and 00-12 UT at Hobart. Some night spread
      F observed at most stations. Hobart, no data 14-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    56    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 30% 
02 Aug    56    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 30% 
03 Aug    56    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 31 July 
and is current for interval 31 July to 1 August (SWFs) . 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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