[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 1 09:29:06 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Six C-class events with the largest a C3.8 at 0254 UT
from region 1261 (N17E08). This region grew in complexity while
regions 1263 (N19E35), 1260 (N19W22) and 1265 (N16W55) appear
stable. The IMF north-south component ranged between +8 to -5
nT while the wind speed increased from 550 to 700 km/s. Solar
wind parameters are expected to begin settling later on 1
August. Possible brief disturbance in the solar wind on 2
August due to weak CME effect from 29 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active period.
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 32321212
Darwin 8 32321212
Townsville 6 22321112
Learmonth 10 34332222
Canberra 3 21111101
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 91 (Minor storm)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 1112 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled with active periods possible
02 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
03 Aug 6 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 30 July and
is current for interval 31 July to 1 August. Isolated minor storm
periods possible on 1 and 2 August at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
30% 01, 17 and 21-22 UT and to 45% 12-16 and 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
01-03 and 12-18 UT at Darwin. Night spread F observed
at Darwin and Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 35%
09-20 UT at most stations. Depressions to 20% 12-16 UT
at Learmonth and 00-12 UT at Hobart. Some night spread
F observed at most stations. Hobart, no data 14-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 56 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%
02 Aug 56 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%
03 Aug 56 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 31 July
and is current for interval 31 July to 1 August (SWFs) .
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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