[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 26 09:49:15 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests 
recent CME activity are backside events and not earthward directed. 
Analysis of STEREO B solar wind parameters suggests that a recurrent 
coronal hole solar wind stream is due to impact the Earth during 
30 April. Solar wind speeds are expected to be predominantly 
low for 26-28 April. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               5   22111212
      Learmonth            4   22111111
      Canberra             1   12000001
      Hobart               1   12000001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1101 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     6    Quiet 
27 Apr     5    Quiet 
28 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the 
next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 70% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed up
      to 15% at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr    65    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
27 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Apr    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    84700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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