[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 25 09:52:50 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             112/63
COMMENT: Visible solar regions have been predominantly quiet 
and stable during 24 April. Solar wind speeds increased slightly 
during the latter half of 24 April. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to be predominantly low for the rest of the forecast period. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22121322
      Darwin               7   22122322
      Townsville           7   222222--
      Learmonth            7   22021323
      Canberra             3   11011212
      Hobart               4   11011312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2103 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Apr     6    Quiet 
27 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Predominantly quiet conditions are expected over the 
next few days with some unsettled periods during 25 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Apr    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions were observed at times 
at some Australian region stations during 24 April which may 
have degraded HF COMMS conditions. Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions 
are possible at times during the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    32900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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