[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 17 09:53:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 123/76 125/78 128/81
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Regions 1190(N14W40),
1185(N14W93) and region 1193 (N17E31) produced several C-class
flares. Both these regions still hold potential for for C-class
and isolated M-class flares. Solar wind speed showed further
gradual decay from 360 to 320km/s. The IMF Bz stayed close
(between +/-2nT) to the normal value for most parts of the UT
day today. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22111101
Darwin 6 32121112
Townsville 7 222-----
Learmonth 4 22121201
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 2 12200001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2201 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 6 Quiet
18 Apr 6 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15%.
18 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15%.
19 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly enhanced MUFs were observed
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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