[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 18 09:28:28 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar acitivty was low with only a single C1.4 x-ray
flare observed. The solar wind speed remained below 340 km/s.
A CME was observed in SOHO imagery at around 0030UT on the 17th
of April. STEREO imagery suggests this is directed Earthward,
but mainly to the north of the ecliptic plane. This is not expected
to be significantly geo-effective. Regions 1190(N14W53) and
1193(N16E19) are expected to continue producing c-class flares,
with a chance of isolated M-class activity over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain low on the 18th of
April. A coronal hole on the southern solar pole may elevate
the wind speed on the 19th and 20th, in addition to effects
from a possible glancing strike from the CME obsered on the
15th of April. An increase in the proton flux observed by
the EPAM instrument on the ACE satellite around 1300UT on
April 17th is suggestive of a pre-cursor signature of the
CME, increasing the expectation of a glancing strike sometime
on the 19th of April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11122211
Darwin 5 21122212
Learmonth 7 21133211
Canberra 2 00022100
Hobart 3 01022201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 6 Quiet
19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the previous day.
Conditions are expected to remain Quiet on the 18th of April.
Unsettled conditions, with possible isolated Active periods,
are expected on the 19th and 20th of April due to a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and a possible CME glancing strike.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant spread-F condtions were observed at Hobart
overnight, particularly in the few hours before local dawn.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15%.
19 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15%.
20 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 29100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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