[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 16 09:53:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1713UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Regions 1190(N13W26)
produced an M1 flare that peaked at 1712UT. Several C-class flares
were also observed today from regions 1190 and 1193(N17E44).
Both these regions also grew in white light area coverage and
hence hold potential for C-class and isolated M-class flares.
As anticipated, solar wind speed showed further gradual decay
from 400 to 350km/s. The IMF Bz stayed close (between +/-2nT)
to the normal value for most parts of the UT day today. There
may be some possibility of strengthening in solar wind stream
on 16 April due to a possible arrival of a CME that was observed
on 12 April. Solar wind stream may also get some strength from
a polar coronal hole from 17 April onwards for about 2 days.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21121111
Darwin 5 22121212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 22132212
Canberra 1 10010001
Hobart 2 11111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 1221 1323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
17 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
18 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet today. Slight
rise in geomagnetic activity may be observed over the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of MUF enhancements. Mostly normal HF conditions with
some possibility of minor degradations on high latitudes may
be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 62 near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 62 near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 62 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly enhanced MUFs were observed
yesterday. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on most
locations over the next three days with some possibility of minor
degradations on high latitudes throughout this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 94600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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