[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 10 09:55:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: A weak CME has been observed in association with the
B8/SF flare at 0050UT on 9 April. Analysis of LASCO and SDO imagery
suggests most of the CME appears to be primarily to the east
and above the ecliptic plane, however, there is still the small
chance of a glancing blow at Earth late on 11 April to 12 April.
Solar wind speeds are exepcted to increase again 10 April due
to an anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22222101
Darwin 7 2-------
Townsville 4 22212101
Learmonth 7 32223111
Canberra 2 11211000
Hobart 4 22221100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2011 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 16 Unsettled to active
11 Apr 12 Unsettled
12 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected for 10 Apr due to an anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are likely at times for high latitude
regions for 10-11 April due to expected coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced.
11 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 76600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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