[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 9 09:51:59 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: A CME observed late in the UT day of 7 April appears
to have originated from the behind the limb and is not expected
to be geoeffective. The IMF has been sustained southward at
approximately 5nT for the past few hours. Solar wind speeds
have declined slowly over the past 24 hours and are presently
approximately 400 km/s. Solar wind speeds are exepcted to
increase again late in the UT day of 9 April to 10 April
due to an anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 21223222
Darwin 7 21223222
Townsville 11 22233233
Learmonth 8 212331--
Canberra 5 10123122
Hobart 7 21123222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3211 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
10 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Sustained southward IMF over the past few hours has
resulted in some storm level activity at high latitudes, with
low-mid latitudes remaining quiet to unsettled. Unsettled conditions
with isolated active periods are expected from late on 09Apr
due to an anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are likely at times for high latitude
regions from late 9 April due to expected coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day, otherwise
mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced.
10 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for southern
regions from late 9 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list