[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 8 09:33:25 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Recent CME activity near the east and west limbs is 
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed remains slightly 
elevated but is declining. Bz is fluctuating between +/- 5nT. 
Coronol hole effects are likely to result in mildly elevated 
solar wind speed on 09Apr. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100111
      Darwin               3   21110112
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            1   --100110
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               2   21100011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             26   3314 6533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     7    Quiet 
09 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
10 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are 
expected from late on 09Apr due to an anticipated coronal hole 
wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are likely at times for high latitude 
regions from 9 April due to expected coronal hole effects. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to Depressed by 15% over the UT
day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced. 
09 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced. 
10 Apr    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for southern 
regions from 9 April. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:   204000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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