[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 7 09:51:37 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   117/69             117/69             117/69
COMMENT: Region 1184 (N16W41) increased in area and spot number. 
Follwing the weak shock observed at approximately 18UT on 5 April 
sustained periods of southward IMF have been observed at times. 
Solar wind speeds have been mildly elevated over the past 24 
hours at approximately 500-600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to decline over the next 24 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   32154433
      Darwin              23   321545-3
      Learmonth           26   --154533
      Canberra            12   22044322
      Hobart              21   32155432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2112 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly quiet to unsettled 
in the fisrt half of the UT day of 6 April. Minor storm periods 
were observed at Australian region latitudes in the latter half 
of the UT day as the result sustained periods of southward IMF. 
Major storm periods were observed at high latitudes. Mostly quiet 
to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 2 days with 
a possible increase in activity on 9 April due to an anticipated 
coronal hole wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions were observed for 
low-mid latitudes over the past 24 hours. Mildly depressed conditions 
were observed at times for mid-high latitude regions. Mostly 
normal to enhanced conditions are expected for the next few days 
with mild depressions possible at times for mid-high latitude 
regions on 9 April. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% to depressed up to 25% for southern
      most regions during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed at times
      over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced. 
08 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced. 
09 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions were observed for 
the Australian region over the past 24 hours. Mildly depressed 
conditions were observed for southern most Australian regions 
during local night of 6 April as the result of recent geomagnetic 
activity. Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for 
the next few days with mild depressions possible at times for 
southern regions on 9 April. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09   (very high fluence)  

Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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