[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 6 09:31:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Activtity is expected to remain Very Low over the next
few days. AR1185(N23E50) is growing and may produce C class flares.
A weak shock was observed in the ACE solar wind data at around
18UT. The Bz dropped to around -5nT during this event. This is
suggestive of a glancing blow from the CME observed on April
3rd. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over the next few
days as the CME and recent coronal hole influences abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22110022
Darwin 4 22110122
Learmonth 4 22110022
Canberra 2 11110012
Hobart 4 22220012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3221 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 6 Quiet
07 Apr 6 Quiet
08 Apr 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20%,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
07 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
08 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind around 18UT,
indicative of a glancing blow from a CME. At this stage this
is not expected to cause signifcant impact on the ionosphere.
However high to mid lattiudes may experience some depressed periods
over the next day if this event proves to be geo-effective.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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