[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 5 09:47:33 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: There is a slight chance for an isolated M classs flare 
from region 1183(N16W38) during the next 2 days. Solar wind speed 
fluctuated around 580km/s and dropped to 480km/s after 12UT. 
Bz fluctuated between -4/2nT for most of the reporting period. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23121201
      Darwin               6   232-1201
      Learmonth            5   32111201
      Canberra             2   12120100
      Hobart               5   23121200
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   4333 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr     7    Quiet 
06 Apr     5    Quiet 
07 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated Unsettled periods possible at higher latitudes 
on day one. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted to depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
06 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 
07 Apr    80    Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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