[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 11 09:27:08 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No significant evolution of active regions on disc.
A CME was observed on the NE limb around 04UT on the 10th of
April. STEREO imagery indicates this is not Earth directed. Only
B class x-ray events were observed. The solar wind speed decayed
from around 400 Km/s to around 320 Km/s over the day. No significant
active regions are expected to rotate into view in the next few
days. Solar activity is expected to be very low. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain low over the next few days, however a possible
glancing blow from the CME observed early on the 9th of April
may occur on the 12th of April in the later part of the day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21012211
Darwin 6 22112222
Learmonth 6 21013321
Canberra 1 10001100
Hobart 3 20002210
Casey(Ant) 5 ---22211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10 3331 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 7 Quiet
12 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Activity is expected to be mostly Quiet over the next
3 days. A possible glancing blow from a CME on the 12th of April
may cause Unsettled conditions late on the 12th and early on
the 13th.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 40 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 45 Near predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 62300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list