[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 19 09:06:33 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 470km/s to 390km/s during the
UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-3nT
over the same period. Expect B-class flares from regions 1106
and 1108 with a moderate chance of isolated C-class flares from
both regions for the next three days. Learmonth Solar Observaty's
discrete frequency radio telescope shows a noise storm in progress
at 245MHz. Expect an increase in solar wind speed late into the
UT day on 20 September due to a recurrent coronal hole. Solar
wind speed is expected to raise to the 600km/s to 700km/s range.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 22012111
Canberra 1 10011000
Hobart 4 11122111
Casey(Ant) 8 33312121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 128 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2332 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 6 Quiet
20 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Sep 20 active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions today, however late
in the UT day on 20 September expect geomagnetic activity to
increase ranging from Unsettled to Active levels and isolated
cases of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes due to an increase
in the solar wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted mostly near predicted monthly values with normal
ionospheric support during the last 24 hours with slight enhancements
noted in the southern Australian region. Expect this trend to
continue for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list