[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 20 09:08:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 410km/s to 330km/s during the
UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-2nT
over the same period. Expect B-class flares from regions 1106
and 1108 with a moderate chance of isolated C-class flare from
region 1108 for the next three days. Learmonth Solar Observaty's
discrete frequency radio telescope shows a noise storm in progress
at 245MHz. Expect an increase in solar wind speed late today,
20 September, due to a recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed
is expected to raise to the 600km/s to 700km/s range.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 22110011
Townsville 6 22221221
Learmonth 3 22111110
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 3 12111101
Casey(Ant) 5 -3211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 3111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Sep 20 active
22 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 18 September
and is current for interval 20-21 September. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic
conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Expect an increase
in the geomagnetic activity late today, 20 September. The increase
in acivity is expected to last for 48 hours with Unsettled to
Active levels and isolated cases of Minor Storm levels at higher
latitudes due to an increase in the solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Noted mostly near predicted monthly values with normal
ionospheric support during the last 24 hours with slight enhancements
noted in the Australian region. Expect this trend to continue
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 90700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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