[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 18 09:08:50 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  82/23

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              86/29              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours due 
to a isolated C-class flare from region 1108. Solar wind speed 
ranged from 450km/s to 510km/s during the UT day. The interplanetary 
magnetic field was between +/-6nT over the same period. Expect 
B-class flares from regions 1106 and 1108 with a moderate chance 
of isolated C-class flares from both regions for the next three 
days. Learmonth Solar Observaty's discrete frequency radio telescope 
showed a noise storm in progress at 245MHz during its day light 
operational hours. LASCO C3 imagery showed a CME on the east 
limb, first noted on 17/0754UT image. Confirmed with STEREO imagery, 
not expected to be geo-effective. Expect an increase in solar 
wind speed late into the UT day on 20 September due to a recurrent 
coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected to raise to the 600km/s 
to 700km/s range. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23322211
      Darwin               6   22222211
      Townsville          10   23332222
      Learmonth            7   23222211
      Canberra             4   12222100
      Hobart               7   13322201
      Casey(Ant)          12   -4422221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            64   (Active)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart             135   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1010 1332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep     6    Quiet 
19 Sep     6    Quiet 
20 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Active levels at high 
latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
two days, however late in the UT day on 20 September expect an 
increase in geomagnetic activity to Unsettled to Active levels 
and isolated cases of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes 
due to an increase in the solar wind speed. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Sep    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted mostly near predicted monthly values with normal 
ionospheric support during the last 24 hours with slight enhancements 
during the local night time hours in the southern Australian 
region. Expect this trend to continue for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    91700 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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