[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              86/29              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed increased from 350km/s to 470km/s during the 
UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-8nT 
over the same period. Expect B-class flares with a slight chance 
of isolated C-class flares from regions 1106 and 1108 over the 
next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12111232
      Darwin               6   12111232
      Townsville           7   12212232
      Learmonth            7   12112332
      Canberra             2   01001221
      Hobart               5   11111232
      Casey(Ant)          10   23311242
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              82   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   4122 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep     6    Quiet 
18 Sep     6    Quiet 
19 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Active levels at high 
latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Sep    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly values with normal ionospheric 
support for the the next three days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    65500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.

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