[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              85/27              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed decreased from 420km/s to 340km/s during the 
UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-5nT 
over the same period. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery showed a CME on the 
north-west limb, first visible on 15/1918UT image. CME is not 
expected to be geo-effective. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   32131001
      Darwin               4   21131001
      Townsville           8   32232122
      Learmonth            5   32131000
      Canberra             2   21020000
      Hobart               3   21121001
      Casey(Ant)           7   33330001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              70   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   1232 1233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep     4    Quiet 
17 Sep     4    Quiet 
18 Sep     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Active levels at high 
latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Sep    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly values with normal ionospheric 
support for the the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    58700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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