[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 13 09:35:53 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
New region 1107 rotated on disc while region 1106 remains unchanged
in size and magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed ranged between
360km/s and 320km/s over the UT day while the north-south component
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-3nT. Possible increase in solar
wind parameters over the next 36 hours due to minor coronal hole
effects and possible glancing blow from the partial halo CME
from the erupting filament on 11Sep. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low over the next few days with the slight chance
of a C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 12211111
Learmonth 2 12100010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 10100001
Casey(Ant) 4 23210011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 2 days with possible Active periods due to mild coronal
hole effects and a potential glancing blow of the the CME from
the erupting filament of 11Sep. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for 15Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Sep 15 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs ~20% during local day and night for Equatorial
and Northern AUS regions. Mostly normal HF conditions for Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Depressed
MUFs ranging from 10%-20% expected for low latitudes over the
next 3 days. With the chance of increased geomagnetic activity
over the next 36 hours, possible disturbed conditions for high
to mid latitudes on 13Sep-15Sep with otherwise normal ionospheric
support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 77200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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