[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 14 09:04:37 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              81/22

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Expect B-class flares from region 1106 with a slight chance of 
an isolated C-class X-ray flare during the next three days. Solar 
wind speed ranged between 320km/s and 280km/s over the last 24 
hours. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-3nT over 
the same period. There may be an increase in solar wind parameters 
over the next 24 hours due to a possible glancing blow from a 
CME associated with an erupting filament on 11 September. LASCO 
C3 imagery showed a CME on the north-west limb, first visible 
on 13/1230UT image. This is a backside event, confirmed by STEREO 
COR1 and COR2 imagery and is not expected to be geo-effective. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21101211
      Darwin               3   21101111
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            2   21001210
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Hobart               2   10001211
      Casey(Ant)           4   22210111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Sep     6    Quiet 
16 Sep     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected today, 14 
September, with a chance of Active periods, particularly at high 
latitudes, due to possible glancing blow of the CME associated 
filament erupting on 11 September. Mostly Quiet conditions expected 
the following two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Sep    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep    25    near predicted monthly values 
15 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
16 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs possible tomorrow, 15 September due to 
possible increase in geomagnetic activity, today, 14 September, 
otherwise expect near predicted monthly values with normal ionospheric
support. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    54400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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