[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 12 09:53:25 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
LASCO C3 imagery from 0618UT onwards shows a semi-halo CME produced
by an erupting filament located in the north east quadrant could
be geoeffective. New region 1106 rotated on disc and was the
source of numerous B-class events. Solar wind speed decreased
over the UT day from 400km/s at 00UT to be 350km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged
between +3nT and -1nT over the UT day. Possible increase in solar
wind parameters over the next 2 days due to a minor coronal hole
becoming geoeffective and todays partial halo CME. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low over the next few days with the slight
chance of a C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 1 11011001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11000001
Casey(Ant) 4 13310001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 6 Quiet
13 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Possible Unsettled conditions with Active periods for
13Sep-14Sep due to mild coronal hole effects and a moderate
geomagnetic disturbance from todays partial halo CME from an
erupting filament.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs during local day for Northern AUS and
during local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last
24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Equatorial and
Antarctic regions for the first half of the UT day. Depressed
MUFs ranging from 10%-20% possible for low to mid latitudes over
the next 3 days. Possible disturbed conditions for high to
mid latitdues on 13Sep-14Sep due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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