[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 5 09:04:50 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 400 to 330 over the UT day,
showing tubulence over the last several hours. The solar wind is
expected to return to slightly elevated levels today, 5 September,
and expected to remain slightly elevated for the following two days
due to a recurrent coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated between +/-2nT over the last 24 hours. Emerging flux region
11105 is expected to continue producing B-class flares with a chance
of an isolated C-class flare. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery show a CME on
the west limb first visible at 04/1524UT and 04/1954UT respectively.
STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery shows it as a partial halo CME. This CME
is not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 1 11001101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 10000101
Casey(Ant) 4 22210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 12 Unsettled
06 Sep 12 Unsettled
07 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect mostly Unsettled Geomagnetic conditions conditions
today, 5 September, with isolated cases of Active levels, particularly
at high latitudes due to elevated solar wind stream speed. Expect
this trend to continue for the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed MUFs were noted during local day
at low latitudes. Expect near monthly predited values for the
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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