[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 6 09:45:41 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was very turbulent for the first half 
of the UT day and varied between 300 and 380 km/s. In the last 
12 hours the Vsw became much less turbulent and rose steadily 
from 300 towards 400 km/s, likely the onset of the expected high 
speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) from the recurrent coronal hole. 
The last 6 hours has seen large swings north-south in IMF Bz 
up to 10nt, also likely associated with the onset of the HSSWS. 
AR11105 is expected to continue producing B-class flares with 
a chance of an isolated C-class flare. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery 
on the SOHO spacecraft showed a CME on the west limb first visible 
4th Sept 1524-1954UT. STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery shows it as a 
partial halo CME. This CME is not expected to be geo-effective 
as it is not directed at Earth. This is confirmed by cosmic ray 
data showing no Forbush decrease, indicating no CME between Sun 
and Earth. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110013
      Darwin               3   11110013
      Townsville           6   12211123
      Learmonth            3   11120012
      Canberra             1   -1000002
      Hobart               2   10010003
      Casey(Ant)           5   23210112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              3   1000 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Sep     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was very turbulent for the first half 
of the UT day and varied between 300 and 380 km/s. In the last 
12 hours the Vsw became much less turbulent and rose steadily 
from 300 towards 400 km/s, likely the onset of the expected high 
speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) from the recurrent coronal hole. 
The last 6 hours has seen large swings north-south in IMF Bz 
up to 10nt, also likely associated with the onset of the HSSWS. 
Expect Unsettled geomagnetic conditions conditions 6th September, 
with possible isolated cases of Active levels, particularly at 
high latitudes. Expect this to continue for the following day. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Sep    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10% 
07 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10% 
08 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly depressed MUFs were noted during local day 
at low latitudes. Expect near or slightly below monthly predicted 
values for the next three days. Unsetteld geomagnetic activity 
over the next two days will cause polar ionosphere conditions 
to degrade to Fair and may slightly depress mid-latitude MUFs. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    40100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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