[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 4 09:06:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 460 to 390 over the
UT day. The solar wind is expected to return to slightly elevated
levels later in the UT day, 4 September, and expect to remain
slightly elevated for the following two days due to weak recurrent
coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between
+/-3nT over last 24 hours. Emerging flux region 11105 may produce
an isolated C-class flare, otherwise expect Very Low solar activity
over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 12011000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 10011001
Casey(Ant) 4 23211010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2223 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 6 Quiet
05 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
06 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet Geomagnetic conditions early in
the UT day, 4 September, with Unsettled to Active coditions later
in the UT day. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions with isolated
cases of Active conditions, particularly at high latitudes over
the following two days due to slightly elevated solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed MUFs were noted in the Australian
region during local night time hours. Expect near monthly predited
values for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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