[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 3 09:44:24 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to moderate levels of 400-480
km/s over the day, probably a precursor to the high-speed solar
wind stream expected in 2-3 days from a recurrent coronal hole
across the solar equator, now near the central meridian. The
IMF fluctuated north-south, particularly early in the UT day
between +10 and -5nt, causing some geomagnetic fluctations. There
are now five sunspot groups AR1101, AR1102 AR1103, AR1104 and
new AR1105. All are stable, mostly BETA magnetic configuration
and unlikely to produce significant flaring.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22222311
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 9 22322322
Learmonth 7 22221321
Canberra 3 11221200
Hobart 7 21231311
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1000 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 7 Quiet
04 Sep 7 Quiet
05 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled at all latitudes in the last 24h
as solar wind speed increased to moderate levels and the IMF
Bz fluctuated north-south, particularly early in the UT day between
+10 and -5nt, causing geomagnetic disturbance. An extended recurrent
coronal hole across the solar equator is likely be geoeffective
in 2-3 days with a high speed solar wind stream. Models show
a solar sector boundary that may be crossed ahead of the HSSWS
with a weak shock to the geomagnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 30 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Sep 30 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial and mid-latitudes were enhanced at certain
times in the UT day raising the regional T index above monthly
median. The enhancement is probably from enhanced ionising solar
EUV radiation as there are now 5 active regions. The variability
may be from geomagnetic variability over the last 24h from fluctating
solar magnetic field. An extended recurrent coronal hole across
the solar equator is likely be geoeffective in 3-4 days, and
MUFs could be suppressed back to monthly averages.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 46400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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