[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 2 09:38:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 77/16
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained low in the 320-380 km/s range
over the day and is still somewhat turbulent. The north-south
IMF Bz component was mostly north, not conducive for geomagnetic
merging, except for a -5nt to -10nt excursion that has been ongoing
since ~22UT. The small recurrent coronal hole in the north does
not appear to have been geoeffective but another more extended
hole across the solar equator is more likely be in 3-4 days.
AR1101 and AR1102 are both stable magnetic configurations. The
only emissions were Type III radio bursts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21111122
Darwin 4 22101122
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 5 22111122
Canberra 1 01000011
Hobart 2 10100122
Casey(Ant) 7 3-310122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 5 Quiet
04 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Conditions mostly Quiet at all latitudes in the last
24h as solar wind speed remains low and IMF BZ mostly northwards.
The exception is a -5nt to -10nt excursion that has been ongoing
since ~22UT and caused brief local Active conditions near the
auroral oval in the night sector. The small recurrent coronal
hole in the north does not appear to have been geoeffective but
another more extended hole across the solar equator is more likely
be in 3-4 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial latitude MUFs less reduced than the last
couple of days. The regional T index rose to near monthly median.
Polar ionosphere likely to be disturbed early on 2Sept due to
local geomagnetic activity from merging with the solar magnetic
field. The small recurrent coronal hole in the north does not
appear to have been geoeffective but another more extended hole
across the solar equator is more likely be in 3-4 days, and MUFs
could be slightly depressed from monthly averages.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 43100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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