[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 1 09:38:01 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained low in the 320-360 km/s range
over the day and is still somewhat turbulent. The north-south
IMF Bz component was mostly north and above -2 nT, not conducive
for geomagnetic merging. Solar wind speed may rise to moderate
levels in the next 24h if the high speed solar wind stream of
a small but deep recurrent coronal hole is geoeffective. AR1101
has declined in size slightly but is a stable ALPHA magnetic
configuration. AR1102 is smaller and fairly stable with BETA
configuration. The only emissions were two small B-class X-ray
flares and several Type III/IV/V radio bursts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11211012
Darwin 3 21201012
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 3 12111111
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 1 10100011
Casey(Ant) 6 23310012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 41 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Conditions mostly Quiet at all latitudes in the last
24h as solar wind speed remains low and IMF BZ mostly northwards.
A recurrent coronal hole enhanced solar wind speed could cause
Unsettled conditions at low and mid latitudes in the next 24h
if the high speed solar wind stream of a small but deep recurrent
coronal hole is geoeffective. Isolated active periods are possible
at high latitudes, particularly if IMF Bz has extended southward
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
02 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
03 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial latitude MUFs generally reduced significantly.
MUFs could be slightly depressed from monthly averages at
mid-latitudes for next 24h if geomagnetic activity increases from a small but
deep recurrent coronal hole solar wind speed increase.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 33400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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