[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 25 10:40:51 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with only minor B-class events. Very Low to Low solar activity
is expected for the next 3 days with the chance of C-class events.
Solar wind speed remained elevated at 650km/s-690km/s over the
UT day due to the high speed solar wind stream from the current
geoeffective transequatorial coronal hole. Bz only ranged between
+/-5nT over the last 24 hours without any notable southward
excursions. Elevated solar wind speed is expected for the
next 2 days days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 17 34334332
Darwin 13 33234232
Townsville 18 34334333
Learmonth 15 33334332
Canberra 13 23334232
Hobart 17 34334332
Casey(Ant) 26 -5-44343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 88 (Minor storm)
Canberra 94 (Minor storm)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23 3244 5424
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Oct 13 Unsettled to Active
27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active over the
last 24 hours for low to mid latitude stations and Minor Storm
periods for high latitudes. Continued high solar wind velocity
from the current geoeffective transequatorial positioned coronal
hole is expected to continue for the next 2 days. Bz remains
between +/-5nT with no prolonged southward periods. Unsettled
to Active conditions are expected for low to mid latitudes and
periods of Minor Storm conditions for high latitudes over the
next 2 days. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 27Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 10%-30% observed for the entire
Australian/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions and notable sporadic E observed for IPS Cocos
Is station between 12UT-22UT. Depressed MUFs of 10%-30% are expected for
the next 2 days for the Australian/NZ region with possible disturbed
conditions for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions due to the
increased geomagnetic activity from the current geoeffective
coronal hole. Improved ionospheric support expected by 27Oct
with occasional depressed MUFs of 10%-20% during local day for
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and during local night
for Equatorial regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 629 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list