[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 24 10:54:46 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with only minor B-class events from regions 1117 and 1115. Region
1117 underwent some growth, increased spot count and magnetic
complexity. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the
next 3 days with the chance of C-class events. Solar wind speed
increased further from 550km/s at 00UT to be ~650km/s at the
time of this report. Elevated solar wind speed is due to the
arrival of the high speed solar wind stream from the current
geoeffective transequatorial coronal hole. Bz however has only
ranged between +/-5nT over the last 24 hours without any notable
southward excursions. Elevated solar wind parameters are expected
for the next 3 days due to coronal hole effects and a possible
glancing blow CME from a disappearing filament off the northwest
limb on 21Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 19 33344433
Darwin 14 22243423
Townsville 21 33344434
Learmonth 20 23235434
Canberra 16 22344423
Hobart 20 23345423
Casey(Ant) 21 4--44333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 110 (Major storm)
Canberra 69 (Active)
Hobart 97 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 0121 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Oct 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active over the
last 24 hours for low to mid latitude stations and Minor Storm
periods for high latitudes. These conditons are due to the arrival
of the high speed solar wind stream from the current geoeffective
transequatorial positioned coronal hole. Solar wind speed has
increased from 380km/s to ~650km/s over the last 36 hours but
Bz has only ranged between +/-5nT. Unsettled to Active conditions
are expected for low to mid latitudes and periods of Minor Storm
conditions for high latitudes over the next 3days due to coronal
hole effects and the chance of a glancing blow from a disappearing
filament observed on 21Oct off the northeast limb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 10%-20% observed during local night
and dawn for Equatorial regions over the last 24 hours. Northern
AUS as well as Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions had similar
level MUF depressions during local day. Depressed MUFs of 10%-30%
are expected for the next 3 days for the Australian/NZ region
with possible disturbed conditions for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions due to the increased geomagnetic activity from the current
geoeffective coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 56500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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