[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 23 10:31:35 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
Very Low Solar activity is expected for the next 3 days as the 
current regions on disc remain quiet and unchanged. Bz ranged 
between +/-4nT from 00UT to 13UT where it increased in magnitude 
to +/-7nT. Solar wind speed was 380km/s from 00UT till 13UT whereupon 
it increased to be 550km/s at the time of this report. Elevated 
solar wind parameters are expected for the next 3 days due to 
coronal hole effects. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222223
      Darwin               7   11212233
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth            4   1112221-
      Canberra             4   1121211-
      Hobart               5   01212123
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332221-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1000 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
24 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active 
25 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days with possible Active periods and Minor Storm levels 
for high latitudes due to coronal hole effects. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
24 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
25 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
24 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
25 Oct    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. Depressed MUFs of 20% during 
local day and night observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. 
Similar variable conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
with depressed MUF's of ~20% possible for Northern AUS, Southern 
AUS/NZ regions and possible disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions due to the increase in geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    57200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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