[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 22 10:38:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Very Low Solar activity is expected for the next 3 days. Bz ranged
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed ranged between
420km/s-360km/s over the UT day and was ~380kms at the time of
this report. Solar wind parameters are expected to increase on
24Oct due to the coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22112211
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 13 33323332
Learmonth 5 22112211
Canberra 1 11001100
Hobart 3 12102101
Casey(Ant) 9 3--32222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2001 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 6 Quiet
23 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours
with Unsettled periods for high latitudes. Quiet conditions are
expected for the next 2 days with an increase to Unsettled
conditions on 24Oct due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
24 Oct 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the
Australian/NZ region during the last 24 hours with depressed MUFs
of 20% during local day observed for Northern AUS regions and occasional
enhancements for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Depressed
conditions during local night for Equatorial regions. Similar variable
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with depressed MUF's of ~20%
possible for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions
during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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