[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 26 10:53:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with
a C2 x-ray flare noted approximately at 25/2210UT on GOES 14
x-ray plot. Several B-class flares were also noted during the
UT day, 25 October, from active region (AR) 1117. Expect current
flaring trend to continue from region AR 1117 for the next three
days. The gradient in AR 1115 has increased significantly over
the last two days and has a slight chance to produce an M class
x-ray flare. The Solar wind speed ranged between 670-570 km/s
during the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the geomagnetic
field was between +/-4nT. Expect the solar wind to slowly subside
over the next three days as the coronal hole rotates westward out
of its geo-effective location. CME in progress on east limb,
first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 25/0800UT. This CME is
not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22233232
Darwin 7 22223122
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 9 22224122
Canberra 7 11223131
Hobart 8 12233122
Casey(Ant) 18 ---43243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 71 (Active)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3423 3241
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Oct 6 Quiet
28 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Unsettled over the last
24 hours with isolated cases of Active and Minor Storm conditions
at high latitudes. Expect this trend to continue today, 26 October,
followed by a return to mostly Quiet conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 0 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 25 October
and is current for interval 25-26 October. Depressed MUFs of
10%-30% observed at high latiudes over the last 24 hours with
near predicted MUFs at mid to low latitudes. Expect similar conditions
today, 26 October, and tomorrow. 28 October should be a return
to near predicted MUFs at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 654 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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