[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 15 10:10:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Regions 1112 and 1113 each produced B-class flares.
1113 has low chance (<5%) of producing C or M flares. New Region
1114 was numbered today but it is small with simple magnetic
configuration. IMF Bz was slightly north for much of the UT day,
not conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field. The solar
wind veolcity Vsw further steadily declined to 280 km/s. A CME
observed early on the 11th Oct has an estimated velocity of 400km/sec
suggesting it will pass Earth early in the UT day on the 15th.
Spacecraft observations suggest the CME front edge may strike
a glancing blow but as there is no Forbush decrease in cosmic
ray flux the CME is not strongly Earth directed. The filament
near AR1112 may be a source of further CMEs. A small coronal
hole on the limb just ahead of AR1113 may be geoeffective in
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 2 12100002
Townsville 12 33332223
Learmonth 5 221-----
Canberra 1 100-----
Hobart 1 11100001
Casey(Ant) 9 232-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 7 Quiet
17 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet at all latitudes
as IMF Bz was slightly north for much of the UT day and solar
wind veolcity Vsw steadily declined to 280 km/s. A CME in flight
has an estimated velocity of 400km/sec suggesting it will reach
Earth distance early in the UT day on the 15th. Spacecraft
observations
suggest the CME front edge may strike a glancing blow, but as
there is no Forbush decrease in cosmic ray flux the CME is not
strongly Earth directed. A small coronal hole on the limb just
ahead of AR1113 may be geoeffective in ~6 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 20 about 5% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct 15 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
17 Oct 15 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs at mid and low latitudes continued to be slow recovering
from the CME induced geomagnetic disturbance on the 12th. Recovery
to slightly monthly values should be helped by low geomagnetic
activity and three active regions on the solar disc with more
ionising radiation. Another CME may strike a glancing blow during
local day on the 15th with possible ionospheric depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 21600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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